A look back at 2018: Did My Technology-Based Predictions Materialize?

in Technology

By JOE BALSAROTTI

About a year ago, I wrote “What 2018 May Bring” in these pages. Let’s see how I did.

Then: Faster Internet – The pros or cons of the repeal of net neutrality will have to play out, but one thing is sure. Fiber to the home and gigabit infrastructure really took a hit the last couple years, possibly because the payoff was unclear or due to rising build and maintenance costs, but the technology exists for multi-gigabit Internet. Will 2018 see the likes of Google Fiber, Comcast’s Xfinity or Charter Spectrum ramp up their roll-outs?

Now: The world didn’t end when the short-lived net neutrality regs were rolled back. Locally, Spectrum doubled its base speeds and is pushing its fiber offerings more and more.

Then: Faster Wireless – Remember 3G, then 4G? 5G is almost upon us. This one might take until 2019 or 2020, but once 5G gets implemented, your smartphone data speeds will rival that of your wired connection. That dynamic should make for very interesting times as the “cord cutting” of cable TV could become cord cutting completely if wireless is priced comparatively with wired. The undeniable upside of this is that people will truly have choices in their communications options, beyond merely their phone company or cable provider as an on-ramp to the Internet for their business and personal use.

Now: We’re still waiting for 5G. And as too many of my recent travels have shown, 3G isn’t even prevalent outside major metro areas.

Then: Artificial Intelligence – You’ve already heard about this one. From experts warning that The Terminator is a real possibility (and imploring the military across the globe not to put machines in charge of weapons) to the far more benign, such as Amazon’s “you may be interested in…” After all, I remember reading an article maybe a decade ago that computers had already replaced human engineers in designing the very processors which become the next generation of computers. So maybe we’re already past the point of Skynet?

Now: 2018 saw the likes of Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking sounding the alarm on AI creators doing things because they can without thought to the unintended consequences.

Then: 4K Video – This one is already here and readily available. Simply put, the picture resolution is four times better than HD. Netflix, Amazon and Apple are already on the bandwagon, producing most of their new offerings in 4K.

Now: Very quickly, 4K has taken hold. Most TVs (except the very low-end ones) now have built-in 4K capability, as do video cameras and newer smartphones.

Then: The Internet of Things – I think IoT is one of the stupidest acronyms the tech industry has ever come up with. If consumer electronic companies and ad agencies have their way, every light bulb, thermostat, door lock and dog collar will be Internet enabled. The upside is we can control almost everything from our phones and know where Fido is at all times. The downside is there will always be a smarter programmer to hack into it. Instead of just losing data on a hard drive or network, now a hacker can cause physical damage by burning out an air conditioning compressor, spy on you from your own surveillance system or heat a building until equipment fails. There are predictions that by 2020 there will be 75 billion Wi-Fi-connected devices.

Now: 2018 definitely saw smart speakers become commonplace. You speak “order dinner” into them and it appears. But the unintended consequence of every word uttered in your home going to someone’s cloud server to be parsed might take the shine off for those who actually value privacy and security over convenience.

Then: The Gig Economy – This is the name given to the rise of temporary independent contractors, freelancers and others with alternative work arrangements. This drastic change in basic business continues to send shockwaves through industries. Lyft and Uber did it to the taxi business, Airbnb did it to timeshares and hotels. The playing field has not only been leveled; technology has taken an earthmover to it and changed the landscape completely.

Now: Uber, Lyft and the like are commonplace. Heck, even Lambert International now has Ride Sharing areas. If that doesn’t prove the concept has stuck, nothing will.

Looking ahead through 2019:

  • Continued push toward 5G cellular communications. The on-off-on merger of Sprint and T-Mobile cleared a hurtle in December. If it happens, the combined company says its claim to fame will be the most robust 5G system in the country. Much still has to happen for this to come to fruition, but a strong competitor to AT&T and Verizon might make it a reality.
  • We’ll see a pause in the breakneck speed of technology change in 2019. Amazon keeps adding massive warehouses. The accompanying overhead may just force business and common sense to win out over the things better left for Sci-Fi, like the now-shelved drone delivery.
  • Data security will continue to dog all industries and all types of tech. It seems to me the pendulum between cloud and on-premise might just swing back a tad this year as vendors see increasing pushback to their data being in someone else’s hands. Look for new and expanded private versions of cloud applications ranging from video surveillance to voice command, accounting and CRM systems.
  • Quantum computing (developing computer technology based upon the principles of quantum theory) is one of those things straight out of the Sci-Fi realm. Yet seeing a model of an IBM quantum machine at CES (the world’s largest consumer tech show) makes it seem that one of these days, things will drop into place for this technology. What it could mean for humanity is as unclear as it is boundless. The whole idea of computing gets upended in the quantum world. Answers are not exact and not identical, and final results are averages of millions of runs of the same equation – and those millions of runs can be done in less time than a single run can in the digital world. Modeling extremely complex things like the universe, the weather, medicine, motions of subatomic particles and the data generated by IoT devices might need this weird but compelling technology. It won’t happen in 2019, but this could be the most life-changing of any technology being talked about.

 

Joe Balsarotti is President of Software To Go and is a 39-year veteran of the computer industry, reaching back to the days of the Apple II. Keep up with tech by following him at Facebook.com/SoftwareToGo or on Twitter @softtogo.

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