Construction spending greatly exceeded expectations in the nonresidential market in 2015, and this year should see healthy growth levels as well, agree all of the members of the American Institute of Architects Consensus Forecast Panel. There continues to be significant demand for hotels, office space, manufacturing facilities and amusement and recreation spaces.
The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semiannual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will increase just more than eight percent in 2016, with next year’s projection being an additional 6.7% gain. Leading the way will be double-digit growth in hotels, office space, industrial facilities, and amusement & recreational facilities.
“While rising interest rates could pose a challenge to the U.S. economy, lower energy prices, improved employment figures and an enacted federal budget for 2016 are all factoring into a very favorable outlook for the construction industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker. “And after several years of challenging economic circumstances the institutional project sector is finally on very solid footing.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts 2016 2017
- Overall nonresidential building 8.3% 6.7%
- Commercial / industrial 9.9% 7.5%
- Hotels 14.8% 7.8%
- Office space 12.8% 8.8%
- Industrial facilities 11.9% 5.3%
- Retail 7.5% 5.6%
- Institutional 6.7% 6.7%
- Amusement / recreation 11.2% 7.7%
- Healthcare facilities 6.6% 6.9%
- Education 6.5% 6.6%
- Religious 2.6% 4.0%
- Public safety 1.8% 4.2%
The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel consists of economists from Dodge Data & Analytics, Wells Fargo Securities, IHSGlobal Insight, Moody’s economy.com, CMD Group, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI.
To see each of the individual forecasts, follow the link: http://info.aia.org/aiarchitect/2016/charts/jan2016/ccf_012916.html